Dear Friends and Fellow Americans                 14 September, 2001

Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week's attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling from surprise. As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military history, I have a different perspective and I think you should hear it. This war will be won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats, politicians or soldiers.

Let me briefly explain.

In spite of what the media, and even our own government is telling us, this act was not committed by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack was committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don't take this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and I deplore their tactics, but I respect their capabilities. The many parallels that have been made with the Japanese attack  on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not only because it was a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America, but also because we  may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30 years after  we think this war is over, just like my father's generation had to do with the formidable Japanese in the years following WW II.

These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we  must not underestimate the power of their moral commitment.  Napoleon, perhaps the world's greatest combination of soldier and  statesman, stated the moral is to the physical as three is to one.  Patton thought the Frenchman underestimated its importance and  said moral conviction was five times more important in battle than  physical strength. Our enemies are willing --better said anxious -- to  give their lives for their cause. How committed are we America?

And for how long?

In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack  demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of  warfare taught to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity,  security and surprise. When I first heard rumors that some of these  men may have been trained at our own Air War College, it made  perfect sense to me. This was not a random act of violence, and we  can expect the same sort of military competence to be displayed in  the battle to come. This war will escalate, with a good portion of it  happening right here in the good ol' U.S. of A.

These men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us. We  must not fear them.

In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the world's  only superpower (a truly silly term), we are the underdog in this  fight. As you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to  prepare us for the march for war, please realize that America is not  equipped or seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our  soldiers are much better than the enemy, and we have some  excellent counter-terrorist organizations, but they are mostly trained  for hostage rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional body  snatch, (which may come in handy). We will be fighting a war of  annihilation, because if their early efforts are any indication, our  enemy is ready and willing to die to the last man. Eradicating the  enemy will be costly and time consuming. They have already  deployed their forces in as many as 20 countries, and are likely  living the lives of everyday citizens. Simply put, our soldiers will be  tasked with a search and destroy mission on multiple foreign  landscapes, and the public must be patient and supportive until the  strategy and tactics can be worked out.

For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining  itself and is presided over by men and women who grew up with - and were promoted because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine,  strategy and tactics. This will not be linear warfare, there will be no  clear centers of gravity to strike with high technology weapons. Our  vast technological edge will certainly be helpful, but it will not be  decisive. Perhaps the perfect metaphor for the coming battle was  introduced by the terrorists themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft --   this will be a knife fight, and it will be won or lost by the ingenuity  and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software or smart bombs.  We must also be patient with our military leaders.

Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it. They  plan to fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the  American public loses its will to fight. This might be difficult to  believe in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is generally acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long  fight. We need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North  Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap (also a military history  teacher) defeated the United States of America without ever winning  a major tactical battle. American soldiers who marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled and spat  upon less than three years later when they returned.  Although we  hope that Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand  and employ the concept. We can expect not only large doses of  pain like the recent attacks, but also less audacious sand in the  gears tactics, ranging from livestock infestations to attacks at water  supplies and power distribution facilities. These attacks are  designed to hit us in our comfort zone forcing the average American  to pay more and play less and eventually eroding our resolve. But it can only work if we let it.

It is clear to me that the will of the American citizenry - you and I - is  the center of gravity the enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum  upon which victory or defeat will turn. He believes us to be soft,  impatient, and self-centered. He may be right, but if so, we must  change. The Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz, (the most often  quoted and least read military theorist in history), says that there is  a remarkable trinity of war that is composed of the (1) will of the  people, (2) the political leadership of the government, and (3) the  chance and probability that plays out on the field of battle, in that  order. Every American citizen was in the crosshairs of last  Tuesday's attack, not just those that were unfortunate enough to be  in the World Trade Center or Pentagon. The will of the American  people will decide this war. If we are to win, it will be because we  have what it takes to persevere through a few more hits, learn from  our mistakes, improvise, and adapt. If we can do that, we will  eventually prevail.

Everyone I've talked to In the past few days has shared a common  frustration, saying in one form or another, "I just wish I could do  something!"  You are already doing it. Just keep faith in America,  and continue to support your President and military, and the  outcome is certain.

 If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain.

 God Bless America

 Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
 Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy